Has the first wave of coronavirus already ended?
Specialists say that 70-80% of the population has to get sick with the virus in a mild or severe form to get immunity. So this is why the first and only wave of COVID-19 continues in many countries. It does not exclude an autumn rise in the incidence of SARS, and doctors are expecting it. However, the academicians explain, this rise will be associated not only and not so much with SARS-CoV-2, but with other respiratory diseases that have not gone away, such as the flu that occurs every year.
Specialists previously noted that it is worth waiting for an increase in the incidence of SARS, respiratory infections, including coronavirus in autumn. Sometimes you can easily mistake the flu symptoms with signs of coronavirus. The most special one is the loss of smell during coronavirus. However, according to them, such a second wave is unlikely to be as strong as the first one.
Experts say that many patients have already developed immunity to the coronavirus. Furthermore, people have become more serious about warnings and prevention.
The coronavirus pandemic is far not over yet though. There are countries where cases of infected people are still high. These are the USA, Brazil, Russia. Most countries of South-Eastern Asia, like China, South Korea, India, Japan where the virus has been taken under control, are afraid of the next wave.
Some consider all the vibration in the number of cases to be waves, but often these are only irregularities in the line of the first wave. This situation is now in several states of the United States.
The scientists are still trying to predict whether the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic can be larger and more lethal than the first. The WHO (The World Health Organisation) also made recommendations on how to use the time between outbreaks after a peak of the first wave. They were based on the experience of the countries that have already passed that period.
Why do peaks of coronavirus appear?
The COVID-19 returned to the countries where it was defeated. South Korea comes back to April incidence rates, Israel and Serbia introduce an emergency regime. India and the United States have the highest level of disease spread. The World Health Organization says that this is not yet the second wave. They name it the second peak of the first wave. Why is the epidemic intensifying?
In spring, Israel showed an example to other countries: tight restrictions, tracking systems, and drones with loudspeakers. There was an impression that the country did its best to deal with the SARS-CoV-2. And at the beginning of May, Israel began to return to its usual regime.
But in mid-June, after most restrictions were lifted, the situation began to deteriorate. Under 750 cases of infection are detected in the country per day, and this is comparable to the peak values in April. And all because the regime became weaker.
Israel returned the ban on mass events and limited the maximum number of people who can simultaneously stay in the room. South Korea is also ready to do this, as the number of cases is again the highest. In Montenegro, there are 61 daily cases identified, which is double the April peak. There is a curfew in two municipalities and an emergency regime in major cities in Serbia. And all this was preceded not only by the lifting of restrictions. It also happened because of the opening of the internal borders and the restart of tourism.
The USA again leads in the new case number. On Independence Day, the 4th of July, 57 thousand cases appeared.
Do people expect a worse second wave of the virus in fall?
The World Health Organization is not likely to call all that is happening in some countries a second wave — this is just another peak of the first wave. And the second one, most likely, will come in fall and, possibly, coincide with the seasonal outbreak of SARS.
Some countries in continental Europe have already eased quarantine regimes. In Southeast Asia, there is a second wave, and the first has not ended in some areas yet. In June, 7,786,045 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed on the planet, 3,708,328 patients recovered and 430,128 died.
The fight against COVID-19 continues. The search for a magic cure and vaccine is underway on various continents.
To be able to announce the end of the wave, the authorities must bring the virus under control and achieve a significant drop in the number of new infections.
We can talk about the beginning of another wave after a steady increase of infected people is noticeable.
According to one theory, viruses eventually loosen their grip — to spread faster from one carrier to another without killing them. Many people have mild signs of SARS-CoV-2 or no symptoms at all. Though they can spread the disease, which means there is no reason for the virus to weaken its strength.
The most obvious turn, according to scientists, is that the second wave can be easier.
Because most people are still thinking about social distancing, and preventive measures, like disinfecting surfaces, washing hands and wearing masks. But in any way, we still should be careful and wise in this situation. We can’t forecast a second wave of coronavirus. But safety is always in the first place.
On the one hand, if the number of infections rises again, this increase is likely to be relatively slow. On the other hand, the second wave could theoretically turn out to be larger than the previous — since so many people remain at risk of infection. But if the incidence rises quickly, then lockdown may again take place to suppress the second wave.
At the moment, there is still some uncertainty about it, and this fact frightens many.
Some countries have already taken measures for the second wave of the virus. United scientists from Russia, Finland, Italy, Canada, and China are studying methods for the treatment of the virus with the help of Supercomputer. It works with simulations on how to combine different treatments with the coronavirus. Right now there is still no real vaccine against coronavirus. However, specialists advise us to take the following measures for treatment in humans.
Most countries have already prepared more places in hospitals. But the main problem is that in many countries people are still unaware of some things that are going to happen, and it makes them panic. Because after the first wave of the virus, many people lost their jobs, and some businesses had to shut down.
Some countries may cope with the second wave of the virus much easier. Others are likely to have complications. But one cannot exclude the fact that many have already developed immunity, and some did not even know that they had suffered a mild illness. People have become more aware and still maintain a distance and some precautions, so it is worth considering that the second wave will probably pass more quickly, as people understand more this time.