The largest bank in the Russian Federation believes that the peak of diseases on COVID-19 will occur in mid-November,
namely approximately 9-15 numbers.
Thanks to the epidemiological simulator, the bank was able to calculate the number of increases in potential coronavirus patients, depending on whether people adhere to the mask regime and social distance. In the calculations, 4 options were considered: citizens
a) comply with quarantine precautions;
b) sometimes they are adhered to;
c) often violate protective measures;
d) do not change anything at all in their ordinary life.
According to the first option, residents of the capital will celebrate the peak incidence on October 17, with a daily increase in cases of more than 4500 people. If the majority adhere to the first option, then it should be expected in the third decade of October (20-22 days) – well, from about 5200 cases per day. Well, if you implement the third and fourth options, then Russians will expect a peak in incidence from October 24 (plus a minimum of 7,200 and 7,900, respectively).
Throughout the country, regardless of the behavior of people, the peak will occur from November 7 to 13. But here the situation with the increase in the number of cases will be slightly different. Indeed, if the rules are followed, from 16 thousand new infected will be added per day, and if they are ignored, up to 23 thousand.
It is worth recalling that in the Russian Federation, the number of infected has been actively growing since the beginning of autumn. Therefore, over the past few days, more than 11,000 new cases have been added every day.